I think it was in the seventh or eighth grade that I first learned that subtracting a negative means the same as adding.
In evaluating how the Detroit Tigers improved their club over this past winter, you can start with all the negatives they erased from the squad: Delmon Young, Jose Valverde, Gerald Laird, and Ryan Raburn. Though it’s obvious to any serious fan that the Tigers are better off without this quartet, sabermetrics can help quantify just how much better.
Start with Young. Since Victor Martinez is returning, the Tigers had no place for Delmon as a DH and No. 5 hitter. Which is a good development, because he was about as much protection for Miguel Cabrera as a mall rent-a-cop. Yes, he had 18 homers, but that’s the extent of his contribution: he was, as always, allergic to walks and posted a .296 on-base percentage, below his putrid career .317 mark. He had an offensive WAR (Wins above Replacement) of -0.7, and if you had to play him in left, he’d cost another -1.7 in defensive WAR. So subtracting him is good for a win or two.
Laird, in his second stint with the Tigers, contributed exactly zilch if you measure him by WAR. He’s 33 years old and made an especially poor platoon partner with Alex Avila because he hit .204 against lefties and .382 against righties—and that kind of reverse split has been pretty consistent, if not quite as pronounced, throughout his career; in other words, no fluke. Apparently, however, this remained a mystery to Jim Leyland, who stubbornly kept starting him against southpaws, and in that role he was a major contributor to the team’s surprisingly anemic production against lefty pitchers.
Contributing also to this sore spot last year, Ryan Raburn was awful against lefties for the first time. He’s always been pathetic facing righties and a liability anywhere in the field. Raburn is now is 31 years old, so it’s about five years past the time when the Tigers should have given up on him. Geez, I don’t even want to look up his WAR. Yikes, I just did: -2.0 in 66 games! That’s a couple more losses to subtract.
That leaves Valverde. In the role all-around embarrassment, he certainly can’t ever be replaced. And not just because he was horribly unreliable in his role as a closer, the most overvalued position on any team. He never paid any attention at all to the runners he allowed to reach base, even in one-run games, because he was so busy fooling nobody with his falling-down heaving of all-over-the-place pitches. A few days ago, Leyland said he couldn’t understand why no team wants him as a free agent; the skipper still thinks he was awesome except for a few months last season. But then Leyland has a demonstrable affection for mediocrity (consider his endless affection for the useless Don Kelly). And maybe Leyland was watching a different dude than I was.
What club above AAA would want Valverde’s ridiculous dances, fake-scary-clown face, and ever-changing ugly dye jobs? His teammates would want to hide in a corner of the dugout. In an earlier era, his fist-pumping histrionics would have gotten him decked by opponents. He violated all the now-apparently-bygone rules that you don’t deliberately show up the other team’s players. Well, at least he had that incredible 0.5 WAR! But was that half a win a year worth the off-the-charts cringe factor and the countless nightmare “saves” that consisted of two hits, two walks, and a game-ending fly ball to the warning track?
I think not. The Tigers are three-plus wins better by advanced analytics measures, and a whole lot more professional-looking by this fan’s more subjective analysis, than they were at the end of October. Minus four minuses is a huge plus. And that’s not even adding in the actual positive changes: Torii Hunter, the return of the reliable VMart, and a whole year’s worth of Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante.
Hurray for math!
3 replies on “Tigers will be better by subtraction in 2013“
Simply OUTSTANDING piece! Could not agree more with all of it. The one consistent is Jim Genius! Yes genius does have an undeniable affection for career minor leaguer’s perhaps because he was one. The call out on Valverde was awesome but more important TRUE! Hopefully the days of Raburn, Inge, Young, Kelly and all other career minor leaguer’s are over but we’re still left with the genius’ countless managerial blunders. I truly believe this team got to the WS last year in spite of not because of Leyland. Time will tell this year but I fear Leyland will find a way to mess up yet AGAIN and poor Mr I may never get his championship. I hope I’m wrong. Once again GREAT article!
Truthful article. Martinez over Young, a no brainer. Raburn should’ve been long gone. No other team wants Valverde because his only pitch is his fastball and that ain’t so fast these days. Pena should be a better hitter then Laird. Don’t count Kelly out yet, he is at spring training, and if Leyland likes you, you get to play no matter how much you stink as a player. Leyland likes Kelly.
Great article; this should be the year for the Detroit Tigers to win the 2013 World Series Championship. The 2013 Tigers line up has a lot of power now! GO TIGERS!!!!!
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